After a couple weeks of technical difficulties the blog is back!
Here’s what you need to know: the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, so statistically the markets should fall… except that indicator hasn’t been very accurate since about 2016.
More realistically, this year will continue to be a wild ride where data tells different stories depending on the mood you’re in when you read it.
Right now, the technical signals are mixed. In the intermediate term, we’ve experienced a pretty solid 2023 rally thus far. So the trend is positive. However, in the short term, a lot of signals are suggesting this market is gearing up for a pull-back. This would also jive with the long trend, that is still negative coming off of 2022.
The magnet looks to be somewhere between 3950 and 4000 on the short-term downside chart. That’s not a particularly accurate dig into the numbers. It just appears to be the range of the next text using a somewhat ‘thumb in the air to check the breeze’ kind of way.
The better question is, will the markets find a foothold there or not. This is a lot trickier. The data is still a mixed economic bag; some signals okay, others less okay. It’s unclear if the worst is behind us yet. So it’s unclear the market is ready to commit to recovery either.
For now, both technical and fundamental data show little commitment to a trend. So… the wait and see game continues.
In the FWIW, it appears there may be some more downward pressure this week (even though futures suggest a flat-to-positive open on Monday).
Here’s the charts:
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