On The Road Nobody likes excuses, and the numbers don’t care if you’re out of the office. So… here are the numbers. What’s missing is any life-altering analysis.The summary (as best I can gather) is that Fed-speak shifted somewhat Friday. The implication is that maybe — possible — we’re not sure — but the Fed …
All Eyes on the Fed Last week was earnings (and Big Tech was a wild ride). This week it’s the Fed.We’re expecting a rate hike Wednesday. Perhaps more important, what is all the data and fed-Speak we’ll hear?Jobs, manufacturing, and the Fed will all be reported this week. Strong numbers increase the likelihood the Fed …
What Happens After a Huge Up Week? We don’t know what happens after a huge week. But we can guess: Profit taking.Last week saw major indexes move up over five percent. That’s a big move. The question is why?The main reason is likely the softer-than-expected CPI data. This suggests the Fed may be able to …
Thanks Giving Week The Holiday Season is officially here. The tug-of-war has begun.Often, the Holiday Season brings a Santa Claus rally. Between now and Christmas, it’s common to see stocks rise as consumer spending drives the retail sector of the economy.Not surprisingly, 2022 may buck the traditional trend. While the news narrative post-election seems to …
Numbers to Note The short, low-volume, Thanksgiving Week is over. Now to see where the market is headed. Santa Claus Rally? Or bear market coal?If you’re superstitious these are interesting days. The data suggests a recession is coming. However, popular wisdom says the markets will do whatever they can to prove the greatest number of …
Mind the VIX… Again Well, the ups and downs continue. We finish out a strong October only to be greeted by a slide into November.Seasonally, this is a bit of a surprise. But let’s be real. Everything is a surprise right now. Whether it’s election rhetoric, war, weather, or some yet unknown event, it seems …
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy When the market declares something should happen, sometimes it’s best not to fight the tape.Many have called for a 4100 rally target off the lows that occurred in October. That was hit last Thursday with an intra-day move to 4100.51 for the SPX.Now that we’ve got that behind us, the market is trying …
Data Suggests More Downside Overall, the data still suggests more downside pressure this week.Futures show a slight upside bias to the morning. However, the VIX remains stubbornly low, and the ‘big’ hedge that JPMorgan placed on the S&P 500 for the quarter is below current values. Pair this with the upcoming expected rate hike this …
