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March 6, 2023 Market Projections

SPX projection for 3-6-23

Last week’s reversal – coupled with the futures market’s generally higher prices – suggest the week should move higher.

SPX Over-Bought/Over-Sold indicator

Similarly to above, the S&P 500 rallied Friday to recover from a relatively over-sold condition. 

VIX study

This chart is perhaps the trickiest this week. The low VIX price (bottom of the chart) has previously(2022) been an indication of market reversal. However, this has been far less reliable in 2023 so far.

Note the white arrow on the chart. This area of reversal suggests a counter-trend forming (purple line). If this is that case, look for a 3rd wave higher – perhaps pushing up near the 4150/4300 level before re-assessing if this is a recovery wave in a bear market, or the start of a new bull market.  (History suggests the prior, as we still have an inverted yield curve and rising interest rates have been all but assured by the Fed).

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