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Nobody likes excuses, and the numbers don’t care if you’re out of the office. So… here are the numbers.  What’s missing is any life-altering analysis.

The summary (as best I can gather) is that Fed-speak shifted somewhat Friday. The implication is that maybe — possible — we’re not sure — but the Fed may need to pivot and lighten up on the rate-raising campaign because of some of the knock-on effects being experienced around the rest of the world.

If this proves out, markets could use this as a reason to rally. And futures, while not exactly significantly higher, are indicating a positive Monday open.

The open may be a decent sign as there is a mixed bag of technical data points. The VIX has been on a decline, indicating there could be more upside to go. However, there are also signs shorter-term the market is over-bought. Pair that with the big move last Friday and it would suggest markets may sell off in a bit of profit taking.

But, if the Fed is going to pivot, that would mean maybe we’re not over-bought if rates are not rising as quickly as anticipated???

You get the point. The data is in flux. And, per what we’ve seen for pretty much years now, it’s the Fed’s policy that seems to be wagging the dog.

We shall see.

Bottom line, the SPX looks like it’s hunting for a resistance area somewhere in the mid 3800’s.

Here’s the chart of the week for posterity:

SPX projections for the week of 10-24-2022

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