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Happy New Year… Now back to work.

Everyone is expecting a lousy first quarter. Whether or not this becomes self-fulfilling prophecy is yet to be seen. But this week it’s unlikely we’ll have major movement. It’s a short week, and many there is a lull before holiday data starts getting reported.

The key spot to watch is 3930 on the upside, and 3787 on the low side. Neither of these numbers is ‘firm’ in that it’s a specific price point. Rather these are price ‘areas’ where the 100-day and 50-day prices changed direction. So they’re not really support numbers. They could be a decent way to evaluate whether or not the market trend is about to break out and move in another direction though.

The last two weeks of 2022 were pretty range-bound and sideways. There’s some evidence to suggest we could be setting up for a similar move for Q1 of this year.

Later this week I’ll put our the 2023 projections. They’re… mostly done already.  I just want to put a little more polish on the possible downside risks. Until then, we’ll watch the short-term moves of this market to see what kind of directional trends (if any) start to emerge.

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